November 29, 2002

1. According to Georgia fans and the oddsmakers, there’s no way it can happen. Tech is, what, a 10 point underdog to Georgia? Something like that. And of course, Georgia fans will tell you that there’s no way a team whose stadium seats only 41,000 people can ever hope of beating a school from "the mighty SEC" whose stadium seats more than 86,000 people. After all, this is a Georgia team on the verge of playing for all the marbles in the BCS championship game in the Fiesta Bowl. How can Tech even dream of having a chance to win this one?

   How indeed?

   Of course, we need to keep in mind that Georgia fans were braying in 1998, 1999 and 2000 that there was no way Tech could even come close to beating Georgia. Remind me, again: who won those games? Prior to the Auburn-Alabama game last week I was hearing the same line of argument from sportswriters and talk radio hosts. Not a single one of them thought Auburn could even beat the 10-point spread against Bammer, let alone defeat the Tide straight up. But, sumbitch, Auburn only went out there and spanked Alabama by a 17-7 margin. How could that be?

   The point is that traditional rivalries will sometimes confound the hell out of you. Look at what happened in Washington last week with the "Apple Cup" showdown. Washington was only 6-5, but still managed to beat a 9-1 Washington State team in triple overtime. These things do happen.

   Can Tech beat Georgia? Well, maybe. With the exception of two games this year (Maryland and Wake Forest), Tech’s defense has held up well. We’ve seen that Georgia’s offense tends to bog down against teams that play a stout defense. The mutts only scored 13 points against South Carolina (and seven of those points came on a once-in-a-lifetime freak defensive play), 18 points against Tennessee and 13 points against Florida, all teams that were better than average on defense. In fact, Georgia was 0-for-13 on third downs against Florida. Tech’s defense is good enough that I think it can push Georgia’s offense into that same kind of mediocre performance and make it a low-scoring game. Let’s not forget that many of Tech’s defenders played in the 2000 game in Athens where Tech smacked the mutts around and held Musa Smith to 12 yards rushing on 11 attempts. It could happen again.

   Here’s how I see this game playing out – Tech’s defense plays well enough to keep it a low-scoring contest, but Suggs makes a late mistake that enables Georgia to wrap up a victory. I think it will be very similar to the 1996 game, an ugly, low-scoring affair that Georgia ultimately won. That was also the last time the mutts beat Tech in Athens. I fear it will happen again.

   On the other hand . . . Jason Campbell of Auburn looked terrible all season until the Alabama game, when everything magically came together for him and he directed the War Eagles to an unexpected victory. Maybe the same thing happens with Suggs. If it does, I’ll take back everything I said here and proclaim that Chan Gailey is God.

1. You’re not missing a thing. A. J. Suggs, after a disastrous start earlier this season, has turned into an adequate quarterback – I’d rate him just above mediocre. He did OK against Virginia and N.C. State, at least well enough for Tech to win. But he regressed to the mean against FSU – he couldn’t throw long and he made key mistakes at crucial points. He does not have the arm of Hamilton, the coolness under fire of Shawn Jones, or the brain of Godsey. What he does have is the erratic performance of Quincy Carter. I have made this point before and will state it again, for the record: I thought A. J. Suggs was capable of great things for the Yellow Jackets, but he’s proven to be a very average quarterback.

   It’s instructive to look at some of the numbers for the past few seasons and compare them to what Suggs and the Tech offense have done this season. One good indicator of an offense’s efficiency is the number of yards it gains per point scored. As in golf, the lower number is the better number. A team that scores its points with fewer yards gained per point is doing a more efficient job than a team that has to gain a lot of yards to put the same number of points on the board. Why is this important? Because the longer it takes a team to score, the more likely it is that the team will turn the ball over or commit a drive-killing penalty. A team that scores quickly without having to gain a lot of yards is less likely to have a drive aborted by a turnover or a penalty.

   Let’s look at 1998 and 1999, which were Joe Hamilton’s two best years at Tech, and 2000 and 2001, the two seasons that George Godsey was the starter. Tech scored 391 points in 1998 as it gained 4,276 yards of total offense. That’s an average of only 10.9 yards gained for every point scored, which is a very efficient performance. One reason this figure was so low, of course, is that Tech’s defense was scoring a lot of points that season by forcing fumbles and running them in for scores. Still, I don’t think anyone would argue that Joe Hamilton was pretty good at getting the ball into the end zone without wasting a lot of time. This was one of Tech’s best seasons ever in terms of scoring efficiency.

   In 1999, Tech put 448 points on the board while it gained 5,599 yards (both totals are all-time records at the Flats). That’s a slightly higher average of 12.5 yards for every point scored – not as good as 1998 because the defense wasn’t scoring points off of turnovers, but still decent. When Godsey took over as starting quarterback in 2000, there was scarcely any dropoff in efficiency – Tech scored 372 points as it gained 4,789 yards, an average of 12.9 yards per point. Even in 2001, when Ralph Friedgen was no longer the offensive coordinator, Tech was still an efficient scoring team: 381 points and 5,015 yards for an average of 13.2 yards gained for every point scored.

   Under Suggs’ direction this year, Tech’s scoring efficiency has plummeted. The team has put 252 points on the board while gaining 4,230 yards in total offense – an average of 16.8 yards gained for every point scored. That’s more than a 50 percent dropoff from the 1998 number and nearly a 30 percent decline from last season. This means that Suggs and the Tech offense are piling up a lot of yards without scoring many points. The epitome of this was the Maryland game, when Tech gained 485 yards but scored only 10 points – which means the team had to gain 48.5 yards for every point it scored. You’re not going to win many games with an offense that inefficient.

   Or look at it this way: Tech has gained almost the same number of yards this year (4,230) as in 1998 (4,276) in the same number of games (11). And yet, the 1998 team scored 391 points while the 2002 team has scored 252 points – that’s a significant difference.

   Another good indicator of a quarterback’s ability to throw the ball effectively is the yards gained per passing attempt. Generally speaking, a quarterback who can gain at least eight yards for every pass he throws is doing a good job.

   Joe Hamilton in 1998 threw 280 passes and piled up 2,255 passing yards for 8.05 yards per attempt. Not bad at all. In 1999, however, he went straight off the charts: 319 passes thrown and 3,117 yards gained, or 9.77 yards per attempt. That was an improvement of nearly two yards for every pass he threw – an indication of what a great year Joe had, and proof of why he deserved the Heisman Trophy over Ron Dayne. That was just a fantastic job of throwing the ball effectively for maximum yardage.

   Godsey’s numbers in 2000 and 2001 were comparable to Hamilton’s 1998 performance. George gained an average of 7.97 yards per pass attempt in 2000 and 8.10 yards per attempt in 2001. Those are the kinds of numbers an effective quarterback puts up.

   Now, consider Suggs’ numbers for this year: 2,304 yards gained on 372 pass attempts for an average of 6.19 yards per pass attempt. That’s nearly a 25 percent decline from Godsey’s performance and more than a 35 percent dropoff from Hamilton’s 1999 average. These numbers tell us what we already know from watching Tech play this year: A. J. Suggs cannot throw deep. In most game situations, he can only be counted on to complete screens, flares and dink passes. He has a lot of trouble hitting a receiver deep, even when he’s open. This number, I would submit, explains why Tech has scored so few points this year compared to the yardage gained.

   I don’t point this out to bash Suggs. I think he’s tried to do the best he can do, given his physical and mental abilities. But his performance on the field speaks for itself – he just doesn’t have whatever it takes to lead Tech to the next level. That’s why I have argued (and will continue to argue) that Chan Gailey should have installed Damarius Bilbo as the fulltime starter and let him learn how to be a game-day quarterback at the Division I level. Damarius is young and inexperienced, but he has the arm to throw the ball deep and I think he would only have gotten better with more playing time. Gailey chose not to do that and he’s paid the big bucks to make those kinds of decisions, so I won’t beat up on him. But I think he made a mistake.

1. No way. Not even the Athens Correctional Institute, with all of their "Top 5" recruiting classes, has that many future NFL players on the roster. Tech has some talent, but not that much. In watching the FSU game, I noticed that the Semen-holes did not appear to have the edge in strength and speed that they had in previous Tech-FSU matchups. I really do think the talent disparity between the two teams is much less than it was six or seven years ago – the problem is the mistakes made by the Tech quarterback.

1. I was going to write about this, but Bill Harper promised to pay me a lot of money if I wouldn’t mention it. So I won’t mention it. Besides, Ed Tolley, the attorney for the University of Georgia athletic department, told me that the Georgia people did nothing improper in this case. Of course, Ed Tolley would say that Adolf Hitler did nothing improper in starting World War II if you paid him a large enough legal fee.

1. How could anyone hate Larry Munson? He’s a cranky old codger but he’s brought me many hours of laughter over the years as I have listened to him broadcast the Tech-Georgia game. One of Larry’s greatest calls was in the closing minutes of the 1998 game in Athens, which Tech won 21-19 on Brad Chambers’ last-second field goal. Shortly after that game one of my friends on the Hive posted a transcript of Larry’s remarks as Tech won that game. I’ll reprint it here for those who may not have had the chance to read it:

   Munson: Only minutes to go in the fourth quarter and the Dawgs are HANGING on to a SLENDER lead. I don’t understand it, we OWN the fourth quarter – why haven’t we put these guys away? Carter back to pass . . . he’s pressured by Claybrooks . . . pass is incomplete and Claybrooks throws Carter to the turf! A BRUTAL case of roughing the passer and the officials DON’T EVEN THROW THE FLAG! I don’t understand it . . . we OWN the officiating crew. . . I can’t figure out WHAT’S happening here. Whattayagot, Loran?

   Smith: You’re absolutely right, Larry, Felipe Claybrooks is a brute! He’s been punishing Quincy all afternoon, and I’m just SICK about it. I have to admit, though, that Claybrooks is an intriguing young man with a hard, muscular physique – just look at the way his biceps and quadriceps ripple whenever he rushes Quincy on a pass play. I find it disturbing, yet strangely compelling at the same time.

   Munson: Uh, okay, Loran, maybe we’d better get back to the game. Tech with the ball at the 35, Hamilton hands off to Philip Rogers and he RIPS through a HUGE hole in our defensive line for 10, 12, 13 yards!! My God, we just CAN’T seem to stop them this quarter! Loran, whattayagot?

   Smith: I agree with you, Larry, Philip Rogers looks like a sleek, hard-charging stallion whenever he runs the ball – it gives me chills just to look at his bulging pecs! I’ve also been talking to the facilities manager here at Sanford Stadium, and he’s come up with an interesting theory. He thinks the placement of the visiting band in the end zone seats gives Georgia Tech an unfair advantage. Because of the acoustics here at the stadium, you can hear the Tech band clearly from wherever you’re sitting, but you can only hear the muffled drums from the Georgia Redcoat Band. That obviously benefits the Tech side. They’re going to work on that in the future to eliminate that advantage for the visiting team.

   Munson: Unnnhhh.

   Smith: Are you okay, Larry? You sound like you’re pinching a pretty big loaf there.

   Munson: Yeah, I guess I shouldn’t have had that second bowl of bran flakes this morning. Tech at Georgia’s 32 now, big third down play coming up. Gotta STOP them right HERE if we’re gonna wrap up this game. Charlie Rogers in motion to the right . . . Champ Bailey is running right in step with him. Hamilton back to pass and he throws to Rogers in the flats – Where is Bailey? Rogers to the 25, the 20, and finally stopped at the 19, but ANOTHER first down for the Jackets. Whattayagot, Loran?

   Smith: Larry, Charlie Rogers has made a lot of big plays for Tech today, but Joe Kines assures me that he’ll come up with the right scheme to eventually stop him. I would like to point out that Charlie has a taut, muscular rear end with well-defined glutes, so that could be one reason he’s been so effective today. And I just LOVE his dreadlocks!

   Munson: Right, right, let’s get back to the game, Loran. Clock is ticking down . . . 15 seconds to go . . . and it looks like Tech will try for a field goal. Gotta STOP ‘em right here. The Tech fans will CERTAINLY try to rush the hedges if the kick is good, so it’s up to the Georgia fans in the handicapped section to keep those Tech people off the field. Guys, I’m asking you one more time to HUNKER DOWN in those wheelchairs and hold ‘em back!! HUNKER DOWN, I said!! Brad Chambers lining up for the kick . . . the Georgia defense is waiting for the snap. The ball is down, the kick is up – and it’s good!! Georgia now trails, 21-19!! How can this be happening? We OWN the fourth quarter! Oh my God!! Tech fans are vaulting over the wheelchairs in the handicapped section and ripping limbs off the hedges!! Loran, whattayagot?

   Smith: It’s utter chaos down here, Larry, with Tech fans uprooting the hedges, beating up small children and elderly fans, raping our female students – they’ve just grabbed our mascot, Uga, and are ritually castrating him! Oh the horror, the horror!

   Munson: Look at those hedges falling from the sky! Look at those hedges falling from the sky!

   Smith: Does anyone have Joe Hamilton’s private phone number?