November 20, 2001

1. Rivalry games are the hardest to predict because you never know what can happen when a mediocre team gets geeked up and the team with more talent just mails it in. Who would have thought that Alabama, a truly wretched team, would put the wood to Auburn like they did last weekend? For what it's worth, I don't think Tech will dominate Georgia like they did last year. I see the game running more along the lines of the ones from 1995-99, which mostly were decided in the final seconds on a field goal. The question is, who will kick that final field goal this year?

   Here are some trends that could be important -

   George Godsey has had a difficult time of it this season because of his bad knee, but his passing has gotten steadier and more accurate over the past four games. Since the N.C. State win, he has completed 101 of 148 passes for 1,196 yards and a 68.2 completion percentage. He's hit seven scoring passes against only three interceptions during that span, and now rates 17th in Division I-A in passing efficiency - not as good as last season, but still in the Top 20. In the Wake Forest game, George probably threw two of the best passes of his whole career when he led Will Glover perfectly on two touchdown bombs. All of Godsey's receivers should be able to play against the mutts. Georgia hasn't been able to cover Kelly Campbell deep for the past three years, and they haven't been able to stop Kerry Watkins or Will Glover on the intermediate patterns for the last two years. I don't see them doing much better this year, since Godsey will be throwing against a Georgia pass defense that is ranked 101st in Division I-A and has registered the lowest total of sacks in the SEC. Tech should be able to put up a bushel of points as Godsey throws his timing routes against Bruce Thornton. That looks promising for Tech.

   David Greene, after a hot start, has seen his passing numbers slip over the past four games. That is partly a product of Georgia's ineffective running game and partly because opposing coaches have seen more tape on him and have been able to come up with defensive schemes to contain him. In the last four games, Greene is 70 of 124 for 1,009 yards and a 56.4 completion percentage. He's thrown almost as many interceptions (five) as touchdowns (six) in that stretch of games, and has slipped to 24th on the passing efficiency list (barely ahead of Jared "Fat Boy" Lorenzen of Kentucky). He'll be throwing against a Tech pass defense that broke down against Virginia and Clemson, but still ranks nearly 50 spots ahead of Georgia (at 52) in the NCAA rankings. Tech also has registered nearly twice as many sacks as Georgia. Greene doesn't have as talented a set of receivers to throw to as Godsey, but you can look for him to run his big man, Fred Gibson, against Tech's smaller cornerbacks.

   Tech definitely has a stronger running game than Georgia, even with its young offensive line. Right about this point Georgia fans will probably holler about all those yards rushing they rolled up against Ole Miss, and that's fine. I remember last year when Musa Smith put up good numbers against Ole Miss's undersized defense, which inspired talk radio geniuses like Buck Belue to declare that all Georgia had to do was give Musa the ball 30 or 40 times and Georgia would run all over Tech. After Musa gained a total of 12 yards on his first 11 rushing attempts against Tech, Jim Donnan quit calling his number. The same thing will happen this year. Even with all its defensive breakdowns, the one thing Tech has done consistently is stuff the run. James Mungro of Syracuse, one of the best running backs in the Big East, got only 33 yards against the Jackets. Bruce Perry, a much better running back than Musa Smith on a much better team than Georgia, gained only 49 yards on 18 carries against Tech. Ray Robinson of N.C. State, who ripped through the FSU defense, gained only 45 yards on 12 carries against Tech. The only player who ran the ball effectively against Tech was Woody Dantzler, and David Greene is no Woody Dantzler.

   Georgia fans keep talking about Musa Smith as "the next Herschel Walker," but here's an interesting statistic to ponder: Joe Burns gained more yards rushing during the 2000 season than Smith has in the past two seasons combined. Burns has also gained more yards rushing this year than Smith has in the past two years combined. Smith has proved to be brittle and injury-prone like Robert Edwards, and has missed as many games as he's played. Burns is out there every game running the ball 25 and 30 times and piling up the yards. And yet, Georgia fans sneer that Burns is "too small and too slow" to play in the SEC. I don't know about the rest of the SEC, but I do know that Burns hasn't lost yet to a Georgia team.

   In a rivalry game such as this one, coaching decisions can play a crucial role in the outcome. Georgia fans have been telling me all season that Richt is going to accomplish great things in Athens because he's always "calm" when the game is on the line (where Jim Donnan was not) and he's an "offensive genius." What did we see, then, at the end of the Georgia-Auburn game? With 16 seconds to go and with Georgia on Auburn's one-yard line, Richt forgot that his team had no more timeouts and called a running play that allowed Auburn to gang up on Jasper Sanks and run out the clock to preserve a victory. I wouldn't exactly call that grace under fire - it was more like panic under pressure.

   An offensive genius? In three of Georgia's most important games this year (South Carolina, Florida and Auburn), Richt the offensive genius has guided his team to a total of 36 points, which is an average of 12 points a game. This fits a pattern, as I've noted before, that extends back to his time at Florida State. When FSU played Tennessee for the national championship after the 1998 season, the Seminoles' offense scored 16 points. When FSU played Oklahoma earlier this year for the national championship, their offense put up a grand total of zero points. Now, Richt is a pleasant young man and a good Christian who has been decent enough to adopt several orphaned kids, which is all very admirable. But in a big game with the pressure on, he hasn't exactly been able to bring his team in to victory. I'm not sure I'd want him calling the plays if my team was trailing with a minute to go.

   Some may argue in Richt's defense that Georgia did beat Tennessee this year, but so what? Richt was going head-to-head against possibly the dumbest head coach in the history of Division I-A. Matching wits with Phil Fulmer is about as challenging as taking on an Alzheimer's patient in a game of Trivial Pursuit. It's really not much to brag about.

   On the other hand, Tech's coaching staff hasn't exactly done a world-class job of making sure that their players are focused, prepared and motivated for every game, which is why the Jackets have lost to three teams with inferior talent. George O'Leary blames everybody but himself (his personal motto must be, "The buck starts here"), but I think a large part of the responsibility for Tech's disappointing season lies on his beefy shoulders. Tech was a better-coached team than Georgia last year, but I'm not so sure that's the case this season, even with Richt's inexperience as a head coach.

   In the final analysis, Georgia's lack of an effective running game and a porous pass defense is counter-balanced by the inconsistency of the Yellow Jackets. The outcome of this game depends on which of the Tech teams takes the field. If the Tech team that self-destructed against Virginia shows up, they'll lose. If the Tech team that manhandled North Carolina is on the field, they can win. I don't have a clue which team is going to be out there on Saturday night.

1. You are absolutely correct, and it points out one of the paradoxes of the current coaching staff. The highest praise you'll ever hear George O'Leary give one of his players is that "he never makes the same mistake twice" and "you never have to tell him anything more than once." And yet O'Leary, after unsuccessfully going for a two-point conversion three times against Clemson and seeing it cost his team a win, GOES FOR THE TWO-POINT CONVERSION THREE TIMES AGAINST VIRGINIA AND SEES EXACTLY THE SAME RESULT! Luke Manget has never missed an extra point kick in his entire career at Georgia Tech. We can reasonably assume that he would have converted on all six of the extra point opportunities in the Clemson and Virginia games. Those six points could have made the difference in two close games. Here's a news flash for the coaching staff: when you add six and one, you'll get seven - which is better than six. When you multiply seven by three, you'll end up with 21 - which is better than 18. You don't even have to take calculus to figure that one out. It is disheartening that Tech seems to have a coach who refuses to admit that he's making mistakes, refuses to learn from his mistakes, and refuses to take actions that might prevent such mistakes from happening again. Would he accept that unwillingness to learn from one of his players?

1. That's a very good question. Defensive breakdowns in third-and-long situations have been a problem throughout O'Leary's entire career at the Flats. I remember seeing it happen time and time again against Clemson in 1995 when the Tiggers' quarterback, Nealon "David" Greene, would complete a pass or scramble for long yardage on every third down play. This year, of course, we had that infamous fourth-and-13 situation against Clemson when they not only made the first down but hit a long touchdown pass as well. The coaches are blameless on this one - it seems to be more a matter of focus and concentration on the part of the players than anything else. After all, O'Leary has assured us that his coaches have the players in exactly the right position on every play, so it's obviously not his fault if the players aren't executing.

1. It's astounding to consider that FSU is seeing the end of several long streaks in this convoluted football season -

   The Semi-holes have won at least 10 games every season for 14 consecutive years. That won't happen this year.

   They have finished in the Top 5 for 14 consecutive seasons. That won't happen this year.

   They have lost as many conference games this season as in the last nine seasons combined.

   They have won or shared the conference title for nine consecutive seasons. That won't happen this year.

   FSU's downfall is the best thing that could have happened to the ACC. There is finally some semblance of competitiveness in the league, and teams now know they can bloody FSU's nose and knock them down. Coaches and players now realize that you can go into the bully's own backyard and kick the snot out of him. There should be even more incentive now for the lagging schools to try to upgrade their programs. It's been a long time coming. I'm glad to see it.

1. Considering that Mickey Andrews is a psychopath and a scummy sleazebag who's been instructing his players for years to maim the quarterback and take cheap shots at the other team, I have no trouble at all believing it. FSU has been playing dirty since they entered the conference and the ACC higher-ups, for some reason, turn their heads and let them get away with it. This injury to Graham is just the latest of many that FSU has inflicted upon other players. Their dirty play doesn't seem to be helping their won-lost record this year, which is some consolation.

1. I toyed with the idea of dressing up in blackface and pretending that some Auburn guy in a hood was trying to lynch me, but I decided that might be pushing things a little too far.