The Hive Presents Ask Dr. Football

September 26, 2003

I have decided that the people who really know what is going in college football are the oddsmakers and the TV producers. Consider the events of this past weekend. The Vegas guys had LSU favored by one and a half points over Georgia. The TV producers made the decision not to televise the Tech-Clemson game. It seems to me that both groups knew what the hell they were talking about.

(And I know, I know, the oddsmakers also made Tech a four-point favorite over Clemson. Look, try not to ruin my analogy, OK?)

Looking back over the tail end of last season and the first part of this season, it has become painfully obvious that Chan Gailey will do one of two things with his team for every football game. He will either have his guys pumped up to the point where they play over their heads and exceed everyones expectations. Or his team will be do deep in the tank that they will never rise to the surface. There does not seem to be any middle ground. He apparently is not the kind of coach who can keep a team on an even keel every week so that they come out and consistently play up to their level of talent.

That is why we saw Georgia Tech go out last season and win games against Virginia, N.C. State and North Carolina that we doubted they would win. Then they crashed and burned against Georgia and Fresno State. Then, this year, they blow out Auburn and take Florida State down to the very last minute before losing. Then they get beat 39-3 by a team over which they were a four-point favorite. Go figure.

Some things are becoming clearer every week. For example, it is pretty obvious that Jon Tenuta is a brilliant defensive coordinator if the team you are playing likes to run the ball. If the opposing team prefers to throw the ball, however, he seems to be clueless as to what adjustments should be made. He never figured out how to stop Brigham Young's continued passes over the middle to their tight ends, and he was equally lost against Clemson's passing game. Tech was playing five defensive backs most of the night against the Tiggers, but were getting no pressure on Charlie Whitehurst. Whitehurst killed the Jackets all game with his throws to their big receivers. If five defensive backs are not able to cover them, then you might as well dump one of them and put in another linebacker to do some blitzing. But this never seemed to occur to Tenuta. Why not?

Another bitter lesson is that, for all his potential, Reggie Ball is still facing a steep learning curve at quarterback. He is an intelligent kid with a world of ability but the fact remains, Tech just is not putting many points on the board. Does this mean I want A. J. Suggs back at quarterback? No. Reggie is the best Tech has at that position, and he will be a fine quarterback one day - but that day is still a long way off.

Ball seemed to improve steadily through the first two games and even into the first half of the FSU game, but something went wrong in the second half against the Seminoles. The FSU pass rush in the second half seemed to overwhelm Reggie, and he never quite got over it. He looked like the same disoriented quarterback against Clemson. Part of that can probably be attributed to his youth, part of it to the disappointing performance of the offensive line. But whatever, Reggie is very much a work in progress.

At the beginning of the season, a lot of us thought Tech would be 0-4 at this point. Instead, they are 1-3 and could have been 2-2, but regardless, I'll stick with my original prediction that the Jackets can win four (maybe five) games this year.

Now, let's get to the questions -

I've heard people theorize that one reason for the team's disappointing performance is that George O'Leary's last two recruiting classes were a little overrated. Do you agree with this?

We will start the discussion with this assumption: for an average recruiting class, the rule of thumb is that about half of the players will make some sort of contribution to the program, either as a starter or a backup or special teams player who sees some significant playing time. The rest of the recruits will either leave school or wash out of the program. If at least half the players in a recruiting class become contributors, then it has met expectations (quantitatively speaking). If fewer than half of the players make a contribution, then you can generally assume it is an underachieving recruiting class.
With that in mind, we will look at the two classes in question.
From the 2000 recruiting class, here are the contributors -
Jonathan Cox - He is now a starter at cornerback.
Nate Curry - Caught 22 passes as a freshman, missed two seasons to injuries and is now starting again at wide receiver.
Nathan Burton - Sees a lot of action on special teams.
Jimmy Dixon - Starter at fullback.
J.P. Foschi - Starter at tight end.
Keyaron Fox - One of the best linebackers in school history.
Jonathan Jackson - In the rotation at fullback, caught two passes against Auburn.
Mark Logan - After a trial at quarterback, is now in the rotation at wide receiver. Caught a touchdown pass against Auburn.
Leon Robinson - Has been a starter at offensive guard.
Daryl Smith - One of the best linebackers in school history.
Jonathan Smith - A starter at wide receiver and the ninth leading receiver in school history.
Darius Williams - In the rotation at tight end, caught a key pass against Auburn.
Here are the others -
Chirod Williams - Still on the team but has seen little action.
Tony Hollings - Probably the most talented running back in school history, now playing in the NFL.
Albert Poree - Was a backup DB and special teams player for a season before quitting.
Hobie Holliday - Was a backup at DE for two seasons before transferring.
Jeremy Phillips - Started a couple of games at offensive tackle before injuries sidelined him.
Others no longer in the program - Matt Graviet, Sterling Green, Reggie Koon, Brian Lumar, Alfred Malone, Derrick Mincey, Brandon Sumner.
My calculations are that 12 players from that class are still on the team making a contribution, while 12 are no longer in the program. I would, however, count Tony Hollings as a contributor he played two years on special teams and had four dazzling games as a running back before blowing out his knee. That would shift the tally to 13 contributors and 11 who arent which is about where you want a recruiting class to be, numerically speaking. Also, I think any rational person would agree that four people from that class - Tony Hollings, Key Fox, Daryl Smith and Jonathan Smith are talented enough to play for just about any Division I college program. Overall, I would say this is a pretty good recruiting class.
From the 2001 class, here are the contributors -
Tabugbo Anyansi - Special teams player and backup linebacker.
Damarius Bilbo - One season as a backup quarterback, now in the rotation at wide receiver.
James Butler - Starting safety.
Dennis Davis - Backup at defensive back, had game-ending interception against Auburn.
Nat Dorsey - Three-year starter at offensive tackle and a sure bet to play in the NFL.
Eric Henderson - Starter at defensive end and a decent pass rusher.
Brad Honeycutt - Starter at offensive guard.
Reuben Houston - Starter at cornerback.
Brian Johnson - In the rotation at fullback.
Dawan Landry - Starting safety.
Travis Parker - Starter at defensive tackle
Levon Thomas - In the rotation at wide receiver since his freshman season
Andy Tidwell-Neal - Sometime starter at offensive guard.
Kyle Wallace - Starter at offensive tackle.
Gerris Wilkinson - Starter at defensive end.
Here are the others -
Salih Besirevic - Backup offensive lineman.
Omar Billy - Backup defensive lineman.
Garren Findlay - Backup at offensive tackle.
Tony Hargrove - Backup or starting DE for two years, no longer with the program.
Gavin Tarquinio - Still on the roster, but has been sidelined by injuries.
No longer with the program - Rahshan Johnson, E. J. Kuale, LeRon Lee, Scott Wolf.
Of this class, 15 are making a contribution as starters or backups while nine are not. If you want to argue that Damarius Bilbo should not be included on the list of contributors, then youve still got 14 who are contributing to the program and 10 who are not - which is well above the 50 percent mark that you look for in a recruiting class.
Based on this breakdown, I would probably disagree that the 2000 and 2001 classes were overrated.

Who has the most dangerous offensive unit, FSU or Miami?

Neither. The most dangerous unit in America belongs to Ron Jeremy.

Who is the most well-endowed quarterback in the NFL?

Based on the name alone, I would have to say Doug Johnson of the Falcons.

Will we ever find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

We may never know for sure whether Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction during the period from 1998 to 2003, but we do know that during the 1996-97 time period, President Clinton had a heat-seeking missile in his shorts.

Hey, what happened in Baton Rouge? All these sportswriters from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution kept writing that Georgia was going to win the national championship this year. What went wrong?

If the only sportswriter you read is Mark Bradley of the AJC, then you would think that Mark Richt was God and that Georgia was the team of destiny that was going to win it all this season. Bradley is the biggest brown-noser of all time among southern sportswriters. It was Bradley who wrote shortly before the Tech-Georgia game in 2000, "Georgia will win because it must." Tech won that game by a 27-15 score. More recently, Bradley has been writing tripe along the lines of, "Georgia is a program that is something special, and you can see it in the strut, the swagger of its players. They know they are something special, and finally the world of college football is finding this out as well. They will have even more to swagger about after they get through with LSU this weekend."
Well, Mark, looks like you blew it again. LSU knocked a lot of the "swagger" out of this Georgia game, and it is not difficult to figure out why.
When you gain a grand total of 97 yards rushing, you lose a lot of that swagger.
When you go scoreless for 55 minutes and your only touchdown comes on a fluke screen pass, a lot of the swagger gets knocked out of you.
When your starting quarterback misfires on 24 passes and throws two interceptions, you suddenly are not strutting so much.
When the opposing team knocks down nine of your passes before they even cross the line of scrimmage, a lot of your cockiness disappears.
This is going to come as a shock to Mark Bradley and all those talk radio douchebags, but it looks like Georgia is not going to win a national championship this year. They may not even make it out of their division to the SEC championship game.