August 28, 2002

1. If you listened to the experts, then you'd have to believe there's no hope at all for the program. The sportswriters and the Sports Illustrated types agree that Tech ranks somewhere around 35th or 48th in the nation and will be lucky to break even this season. Of course, these sportswriters are the same experts who picked Georgia to finish third in the nation in their preseason poll two years ago. And Sports Illustrated is the same group of geniuses that picked Arizona to win the national championship in 1994 and Oregon State to win it last year - so they obviously know that they're talking about.

   I don’t worry about the so-called experts. What does concern me are the comments by some of the Tech faithful who grumble that recruiting has gone downhill under the new coaching staff and lament that the Jackets will never get another decent prospect from inside the state to commit. These are people who are knowledgeable about football and loyal to the Tech family, so this causes me to worry. If Tech fans are giving up on the Chan Gailey regime before he’s even coached his first game, what hope do the rest of us have?

   I continue to be an optimist, however. One reason is the quality of the coaching staff, which I believe has been upgraded considerably. Chan Gailey has been successful at the college and pro levels – yeah, I know Miami’s offense sucked last season, but we all have our off-years – and I think he’ll be a more stable coach than the person he’s replacing. He also has a more impressive – and more accurate – resume than the person he replaced. George O’Leary is the classic example of the leader who knows how to whip an under-achieving program into shape – the problem is, he didn’t know when to stop whipping.

   Gailey appears to be a more flexible coach who will let up on the pressure a little. He’s not the kind of guy who will draw circles and demand to know whether you’re inside the circle with him or outside the circle with his "enemies." I think the players will respond to that, and my gut feeling is that Gailey will prove himself to be a better head coach than Mark Richt. (Of course, as soon as I write that every leg-humper from here to Hahira will stop screwing his first cousin long enough to flame me with an e-mail. Or they would if they were able to comprehend computers.)

   Bill O’Brien, in his first try as offensive coordinator, showed he had been paying attention all those years to Ralph Friedgen. He was also an inventive play caller when finally given the chance in the Seattle Bowl to do something besides run the ball off tackle for 35 consecutive plays. Since Gailey has indicated he won’t be the heavy-handed martinet that his predecessor was, O’Brien should do quite well with the offense this year.

   I don’t think anyone would disagree that Jon Tenuta represents an improvement at the defensive coordinator spot. I admire Ted Roof enormously for his contributions to the Tech family over the years, and I know he’s had to cope with some terrible personal tragedies in the last couple of years. That said, however, he just did not show that he deserved to have the DC’s job. Ted is a good recruiter and an adequate position coach, but I suspect he was in over his head as a Division I coordinator. Tenuta has shown that he can handle the job, and he has some talent to work with this year.

   That said, there are some big question marks to ponder. With the departure of Joe Burns, we don’t know who’s going to take charge at running back. Tony Hollings? He had some problems hanging on to the ball in spring practice. Sidney Ford? His entire career has seemingly been spent recovering from minor injuries. Jermaine Hatch? He blew out his knee two years ago and is still an unknown quantity. Will Tech develop an effective running game, or will A. J. Suggs have to throw 50 passes every game?

   I have some real concerns about the lack of depth in the offensive line, especially with the loss of John Bennett and the injury to Jeremy Phillips. The left side of the line appears to be in good shape with Nat Dorsey, Leon Robinson and Hugh Reilly, but the right side is a little uncertain at this time. If any of them go out with injuries, who replaces them?

   The problem that haunted O’Leary throughout his whole tenure as head coach, the lack of a dominating defensive tackle, is a problem still. Greg Gathers, Tony Hargrove and Hobie Holiday can get the job done at defensive end, but I worry about the lack of a "push" from the D-tackle slots. I guess it’s impossible to find a John Henderson type who’s willing to take calculus.

   I feel better about the quarterback position with Suggs coming in to play than I did two years ago when an untested George Godsey was about to take over. Tech has as many quality receivers as any program in the country. The kickers and punters are solid. There’s a lot of speed and talent, if not as much size as you’d like to see, at linebacker. With the defense playing a more aggressive, blitzing style under Tenuta, that should help the defensive backs.

   Even with all the question marks on this team, I see a 7-5 record as very achievable and an 8-4 record within the realm of possibility. That will get you into a second-tier bowl game. It’s up to Chan Gailey to build on that.

1. The pre-season assessment of Florida State as a national championship contender is the latest example of how dumb and lazy sportswriters can be. Their consensus of opinion is that FSU had an off-year last season and will be in the hunt for a mythical national title this year because "everybody is back." What they are failing to see is that FSU really had an egg-sucking defense last year – maybe the worst defense Bobby Bowden has ever had as a head coach.
   
   

   Just look at the numbers. Last year, FSU’s defense gave up 41 points and 301 yards to North Carolina; 49 points and 391 yards to Miami; 31 points and 428 yards to Maryland; 27 points and 463 yards to Clemson; 34 points and another 463 yards to N.C. State; and 37 points and 453 yards to Florida. Even Wake Forest ran the ball down FSU’s throat for 265 rushing yards and 24 points. Those are the kinds of numbers that a horrible defense gives up. The fact that "everybody is back" just means that you’ve got the same sucky players, only another year older. I’m supposed to be impressed by that?

   That crapped-out defense was on full display in FSU’s opener against Iowa State, surrendering 31 points and 443 yards to a mid-level Big 12 school. Based on what I saw in the Iowa State game, FSU has no dominating pass rush and a leaky defensive backfield, same as last year. The Criminoles may be able to contend for the ACC crown, but they have as much chance of winning a national championship as Cynthia McKinney does of winning the "Citizen of the Year" award from B’nai Brith.

1. I’m surprised that Mack hasn’t been named the head coach at Georgia, because he fits their coaching profile perfectly: every year he brings in another "Top 5" recruiting class, and every year his team finishes the season deep in the rectum of the Big 12. Mack Brown is the biggest choker in Division I football. That says it all.

1. Actually, no. I kept hearing SEC fans on talk radio claiming that the conference schools have upgraded their OOC opposition this year, so I decided to check for myself. There’s a simple way to evaluate OOC schedules – count the number of games against meaningful opposition and compare it to the number of games against bearded-clam schools. Here’s what I found: SEC schools play a total of 49 OOC games this year. Of those 49, there are 21 games against schools that could be considered meaningful opposition. SEC schools thus play 28 games against bearded clams, which means that fewer than half of their OOC games are meaningful. The breakdown by school:

   Tennessee plays Miami and three bearded clams.

   Florida plays Miami, FSU, UAB and one bearded clam. (I consider UAB meaningful opposition because they play in Conference USA and they are just two years removed from whipping LSU.)

   South Carolina plays Virginia, Clemson and two bearded clams.

   Georgia plays Clemson, Georgia Tech and two bearded clams.

   Kentucky plays Louisville, Indiana and two bearded clams.

   Vanderbilt plays Georgia Tech and three bearded clams.

   Arkansas, which sets the standard here, plays four bearded clams.

   LSU plays Virginia Tech and three bearded clams.

   Alabama plays Oklahoma, Southern Mississippi, Hawaii and two bearded clams.

   Auburn plays Southern Cal, Syracuse and two bearded clams.

   Mississippi State plans Oregon, Memphis and two bearded clams.

   Ole Miss plays Memphis, Texas Tech and two bearded clams.

   By contrast, ACC schools play a total of 40 OOC games (several schools have five OOC games because they play in pre-season classics). Of those 40, there are 25 games against meaningful opponents and 15 against bearded clams, which means that more than 60 percent of the OOC games have some significance. The breakdown:

   FSU plays Iowa State, Louisville, Miami, Florida and Notre Dame.

   Clemson plays Georgia, South Carolina and two bearded clams.

   Maryland plays Notre Dame, West Virginia and three bearded clams.

   North Carolina plays Syracuse, Texas, Arizona State and one bearded clam.

   Georgia Tech plans Vanderbilt, Brigham Young, Georgia and one bearded clam.

   Virginia plays South Carolina, Penn State, Virginia Tech, Colorado State and one bearded clam.

   N.C. State plays Texas Tech and four bearded clams, the weakest OOC schedule of any ACC school.

   Wake Forest plays East Carolina, Purdue and two bearded clams.

   Duke plays East Carolina, Louisville, Northwestern and one bearded clam.

   If you want to judge the comparative schedules, SEC schools play a total of 28 bearded clams, or 2.33 per school. ACC schools play 15 bearded clams, or 1.66 per school (even with some ACC schools playing five OOC games).

   SEC fans like to brag about how great their conference is; the best way to prove that is by looking at the results of OOC games. SEC schools play 21 OOC games against meaningful opposition this season. If they win at least 14 of those 21 games, then I’ll concede that they’re one of the top Division I conferences for this year. If they only win 11, 12, or 13 of those games, then they’re no better or worse than any other conference. If they lose more than 10 of those meaningful OOC games, then I want SEC fans to admit that they’re the butt-boys of Division I. The same deal goes for the ACC – they’ve got 25 OOC games against meaningful opponents. At the end of the season, let’s compare their winning percentage in those games to the SEC’s winning percentage in its games. After the first weekend of play, the ACC is 2-1 against OOC teams and 1-1 against meaningful competition.

   While we’re on the subject, here are this year’s ACC-SEC matchups: Clemson-Georgia, Clemson-South Carolina, FSU-Florida, Virginia-South Carolina, Tech-Vanderbilt and Tech-Georgia. Let’s see who does better in head-to-head competition.

1. If you think this year’s schedule is soft, wait until next year when they open the season with Marist, followed by games against Southwest DeKalb and Rockdale County.

1. He’ll buy a new RV, which will immediately break down on his first road trip. But it won’t matter, because the athletic department will already have turned him down for a parking permit at any of the really cool tailgating locations.

1. Your question is flawed because it assumes that Tuberville is the head coach at Auburn. As any Auburn alumnus will tell you, the head coach of the War Eagles is actually Bobby Lowder. And since Auburn University is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Lowder's private business enterprise, I don't think Lowder's going to fire himself.

1. I don’t want to imply that Cobb has been around for a long time, but it’s a fact that he was a freshman the same year that Julio Franco was a rookie with the Cleveland Indians.

1. Georgia fans always do a good job of setting unrealistic expectations and then getting mad when those expectations aren’t met. This year they’re getting a big assist from the print and broadcast media in Atlanta. You can tell that the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has decided that Georgia is going to win it all because they’ve abandoned any pretense of providing Georgia Tech with anything approaching the coverage devoted to the mutts. Mark Bradley, who never found a Georgia coach’s butt he couldn’t kiss, is already puckering up to Mark Richt on a daily basis. The other cheerleaders like Mark Schlabach and Tony Barnhart are falling right into line.

   Over on the talk radio airwaves, Buck Belue has completely lost his mind. You’d expect him to be a "homer" for Georgia because he once played there, but he usually kept a level head about it. This summer he’s gone completely over the edge, and like many other mutt fans he’s already put the Clemson game into the win column. The other day, in fact, Belue was flatly declaring that Georgia will score touchdowns the first two times it has the ball and then turn the offense over to D. J. Shockley to run. I guess Tommy Bowden might as well stay home and not even bother to bring his team to Athens, since the Atlanta media has already decreed that it’s impossible for Georgia to lose the game. (Belue was also predicting that Vanderbilt’s defensive backfield will take care of Tech’s receivers in the opening game. We’ll find out soon how accurate he was.)

   If I may inject just the tiniest bit of reality here: Georgia has a serious lack of depth on the offensive line. It lost most of its best players in the defensive line and defensive backfield. One of its most acclaimed wide receivers has a bad case of the dropsies. It has a second-team quarterback with an attitude problem who’s going to get all pissy if he doesn’t get into the game as much as David Greene. How are the mutts going to stop all those running backs at Tennessee with an inexperienced defensive line? How is a decimated defensive backfield going to shut down quarterbacks like Rex Grossman and Casey Clausen? How is Mark Richt going to handle the dissension caused by a quarterback who’s unhappy with his playing time?

   I see Georgia losing to South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee and Florida. And that just gets them to the season-ending game against Georgia Tech, a team that has beat them three of the last four years and would have beat them all four years if George O’Leary hadn’t had his head up his butt last year. Looks like another year where the mutts are fighting it out with the Gamecocks for third place in the SEC east.